If you buy rice for resale in the US, Canada or Mexico, you’ve probably noticed that rice price trends in North America stopped being predictable a couple of years ago. Export prices in Asia swung from an eight-year low to a one-year high in about twelve months. US tariffs on Thai rice went up, got struck down, and came back in a different form. Mexico changed its duties twice. If you’ve been confused, you’re not alone.
We’re De Thai Products 1989 Company Limited, a Thai rice miller and exporter. We quote prices to North American importers every week, so we watch these moves closely, because our customers ask about them every week. This post explains rice price trends in North America as of October 2026 in plain terms: what happened, why, what it means for your buying, and what we’re watching next. We also sell the rice, and we’ll show you what we offer at the end, with full specs.
A quick warning. Nobody can tell you where rice prices will be in six months. Anyone who claims they can is guessing. What we can do is explain the forces at work so you can make better calls.
Table of Contents
The Big Picture for 2026
Three things shape rice price trends in North America right now.
First, Asian export prices, which set the cost of most imported rice. These dropped hard in 2025 and climbed back through 2026.
Second, trade policy, especially US tariffs on Thai rice and Mexico’s import duties. In 2026 this has been the biggest single driver of rice price trends in North America. These can add more to your landed cost than a whole season of export price movement.
Third, freight and currency. A stronger Thai baht makes Thai rice dearer in dollars. Freight costs rise and fall with fuel, season and shipping routes.
Put those together and you get a market where the rice price trends in North America don’t simply follow what happens in Bangkok. A US importer, a Canadian importer and a Mexican importer can buy the exact same Thai rice on the same day and land it at very different costs.
Where Thai Export Prices Have Been
The benchmark most traders watch is Thai white rice 5% broken, quoted FOB Bangkok. It’s not the grade most US shoppers buy (that’s jasmine), but jasmine and the other grades tend to move in the same direction. Here’s roughly how the benchmark has moved, based on published trade assessments:
| Period | Thai 5% white rice, FOB | What was happening |
|---|---|---|
| September 2025 | Around $347 per ton | Lowest in over eight years, weak demand, soft baht |
| February 2026 | Around $374 per ton | Weaker baht, slow buying, new crop coming |
| May 2026 | Around $416 per ton | Higher costs, steadier demand |
| Late June 2026 | Around $483 per ton | Short covering, renewed Asian buying, weather worries |
| Early October 2026 | About $460 to $468 per ton | Flood concerns in central Thailand |
So from the bottom in late 2025, the benchmark has climbed something like a third. Jasmine and Hom Mali carry a large premium over white rice, and that premium moves around with crop size and US demand, but the direction has been similar.
For comparison, Vietnamese 5% white rice was trading around $420 to $430 in early October, and Indian 5% parboiled around $378 to $384, the highest in more than a year. Thai rice is the premium origin in Asia, and that gap matters for rice price trends in North America because some buyers switch origin when the gap gets wide.
What’s Pushing Export Prices
A few things have been driving those numbers.
Thai weather and crops. Thailand grows a main crop harvested late in the year and a second crop earlier. In 2026, worries about dry spells early in the season and then floods in central and northern Thailand around the late second crop both pushed prices up.
The baht. Thai exporters have complained all year that a strong baht makes Thai rice expensive in dollars. The Thai Rice Exporters Association set a 2026 export target of about 7 million tons, which would be a five-year low, and named the currency as a main reason.
Asian demand. The Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Iraq matter far more to Thai export volumes than North America does. When they buy, prices rise. When they stay away, as Indonesia and the Philippines did for long stretches of 2025, prices fall.
India. India is the world’s biggest exporter. Its policy and its currency set a floor under global white and parboiled prices.
Costs. Fertilizer, fuel, packaging and freight all rose during 2026, and millers pass some of that on.
You can follow the official monthly view in the USDA Economic Research Service rice outlook and the FAO rice market reports. Both are free and worth a glance once a month if you buy rice for a living and want to stay ahead of rice price trends in North America.
Rice Price Trends in North America: The United States
The US is the biggest piece of the North American picture for Thai rice. Thailand sends somewhere around 600,000 tons of jasmine to the US in a normal year, about half of all its jasmine exports. So what happens in US trade policy hits Thai jasmine prices directly.
Here’s the short version of the US tariff story:
- Before 2025, milled Thai rice paid a tiny US duty of about 1.4 cents per kilo. Parboiled paid 11.2%.
- In 2025, the US applied “reciprocal” tariffs. Thailand ended up at 19% from August 2025.
- In early 2026, the Supreme Court struck down the legal basis for those tariffs. A temporary blanket tariff replaced them for a while.
- Since late July 2026, rice from Thailand carries a 12.5% duty under a Section 301 action, while rice from India and Pakistan carries 10%. Thailand is negotiating for a lower rate.
For a US importer, that 12.5% is a real cost on top of the FOB price and freight. Combined with higher export prices, it’s why US wholesale jasmine prices are firmer in late 2026 than a year earlier. Thai exporters have warned that tariffs could cut jasmine shipments to the US by 15 to 20%, as some buyers try Vietnamese or Cambodian fragrant rice instead.
Our honest view: US shoppers who buy Thai Hom Mali are loyal. They notice the aroma and texture, and many don’t switch even when prices rise. Cheaper fragrant rice takes share in food service and price-led retail, but genuine Hom Mali keeps its place on the shelf. When you look at rice price trends in North America for jasmine specifically, that loyalty is why prices haven’t fallen as much as the tariff might suggest.
US-grown long grain is its own market. It’s priced off US farm economics and export demand, mainly to Mexico and Central America, and those exports have been slower in 2026. That’s part of why Thai white rice competes mainly on quality and sorting in the US rather than on price.
If you want the demand side for the US, see our post on jasmine rice demand in the USA.
Rice Price Trends in North America: Canada
Canada grows essentially no rice, so it imports all of it. It also doesn’t have the tariff drama the US has had, which makes Canada a calmer market for Thai rice. Landed costs in Canada mostly follow export prices, freight and the Canadian dollar.
The result is that rice price trends in North America look quite different north of the border. Thai jasmine has become relatively more competitive in Canada compared with the US, and we’ve seen steady interest from Canadian importers and Asian grocery chains. Our posts on jasmine rice imports to Canada and organic brown rice suppliers in Canada cover that market.
Rice Price Trends in North America: Mexico
Mexico is the region’s other big importer. It buys around 850,000 to 900,000 tons a year and imports close to 90% of what it eats. Most of that has traditionally been US paddy rice, which enters duty free under USMCA.
Mexico brought back a 20% duty on milled rice from countries without a trade deal in 2025, then in January 2026 set a 200,000 ton duty-free quota for paddy, with 9% above that. That makes Asian milled rice more expensive in Mexico and keeps US and South American rice in front. Meanwhile, Mexico’s total imports dipped during the first half of its 2025/26 marketing year.
We go into Mexico in detail in our post on Mexico rice import demand.
Jasmine, White and Parboiled Don’t Move Together
It’s easy to talk about rice price trends in North America as if all rice is one product. It isn’t.
| Rice type | Main North American buyers | What moves the price |
|---|---|---|
| Thai Hom Mali (jasmine) | Asian grocers, supermarkets, restaurants | Thai crop size and quality, US tariff, brand loyalty |
| Thai fragrant / Pathumthani | Food service, price-led retail | Competition from Vietnam and Cambodia |
| Thai white 5% to 25% broken | Distributors, food service, Caribbean and Latin buyers | Asian benchmark, India, freight |
| Parboiled | Caribbean, West African and South Asian communities | India and Thai parboiled spread |
| Glutinous | Lao, Thai, Hmong, Vietnamese communities | Thai crop, niche demand growth |
| Broken jasmine | Vietnamese and West African communities, processors | Jasmine milling volume |
| Brown and organic | Health retail | Organic premium, certification costs |
Within rice price trends in North America, glutinous rice and broken jasmine have been bright spots in Thai exports this year, growing while bigger categories shrank. If you sell to those communities, it’s worth a look. See our glutinous rice suppliers for US Asian markets and broken jasmine rice uses and price posts.
What This Means for Your Buying
None of us can call the top or bottom of the market, and anyone selling you a sure forecast of rice price trends in North America is guessing. But some habits make the ups and downs easier to live with.
Split your buying. Instead of one big purchase, buy across several months. You’ll average out the swings.
Know your crop calendar. Thai main crop jasmine comes in around November and December. New crop is more fragrant and often cheaper once supply arrives. Old crop cooks fluffier and some buyers prefer it. Prices around the changeover can move quickly.
Price the landed cost, not just FOB. Add freight, insurance, duty, fees and trucking. A cheap FOB with expensive freight to the East Coast can lose to a pricier FOB landed on the West Coast.
Ask for validity. Our offers state how long the price holds. In a moving market, that date matters.
Keep a second grade in mind. If jasmine gets too dear for some customers, Thai fragrant rice or a good white rice can fill the gap without losing them to a competitor.
Those habits matter more than any forecast when rice price trends in North America are this jumpy.
What We’re Watching Into 2027
These are the things we think will shape rice price trends in North America over the next six to twelve months:
- The Thai main crop. Flood damage in central Thailand and the size of the northeast jasmine crop will decide jasmine prices into early 2027.
- A US-Thai trade deal. If Thailand gets its rate lowered to match neighbors, Thai jasmine becomes more competitive in the US again.
- India’s export stance. Any change in India’s policy moves white and parboiled prices worldwide.
- The baht. A weaker baht would help Thai prices in dollars.
- Freight. Peak season, fuel and canal or Red Sea routing all feed into landed costs.
- Mexico’s quotas. Mexico’s 2027 paddy quota and milled duty will affect where its rice comes from.
We’ll keep posting updates on the blog. You can also read our Thailand rice exports 2026 overview.
A Bit of Longer History
To make sense of rice price trends in North America today, it helps to remember the last few years. In mid-2023 India banned most exports of non-basmati white rice. Buyers everywhere scrambled, and Thai white rice shot up to around $650 a ton by early 2024, the highest in more than a decade. US and Canadian grocers saw jasmine and long grain prices jump, and some shoppers stocked up.
In late 2024 India lifted those limits. A flood of Indian rice came back onto the market, and prices slid all through 2025 until Thai white rice hit its lowest level since 2017 in September 2025. Then 2026 brought the recovery we described above, plus the tariff changes.
So in three years, the benchmark went from high to very high, to very low, and back to the middle. That kind of swing is why we keep telling buyers that rice price trends in North America are better managed than predicted.
How Wholesale and Retail Prices Follow Export Prices
Export prices don’t show up on a US or Canadian shelf straight away. There’s a lag, and knowing about it helps.
Rice bought today in Thailand arrives in North America six to ten weeks later. Importers usually hold a few weeks to a few months of stock. Distributors hold more. So a rise in Bangkok in June might reach wholesale price lists in August or September and retail shelves later still. Drops take just as long to come through, and sometimes longer, because nobody likes cutting prices on stock they paid more for.
That lag is why rice price trends in North America often look like they’re running a season behind Asia. If you’re a retailer or a restaurant buyer, it also means you have some warning. When you see Asian export prices climbing for a couple of months, it’s a decent signal that your own costs will follow.
What Restaurants and Food Service Should Expect
Restaurants buy mostly 25 lb and 50 lb sacks of jasmine or long grain, and they feel price changes faster than shoppers do, because their distributors reprice more often.
For late 2026 and early 2027, our read of rice price trends in North America for food service is roughly this. Thai jasmine is likely to stay firm in the US while the 12.5% duty is in place, unless the main crop is large and the baht weakens. Thai white rice and fragrant rice give restaurants a lower-cost option without much change in how the rice cooks. And Canada and Mexico food service buyers face different numbers again because of their own tariff setups.
Our post on bulk jasmine rice for restaurants covers buying for kitchens in more detail.
A Simple Landed Cost Example
This example uses made-up round numbers to show how the pieces add up. They are not our prices or anyone’s actual quote. Plug in real numbers from your own offers.
| Line | Example amount per ton |
|---|---|
| Jasmine rice, FOB Thailand | $1,000 |
| Ocean freight and insurance to West Coast | $100 |
| CIF value | $1,100 |
| Normal US duty (about 1.4 cents per kg) | $14 |
| Section 301 duty on Thai rice (12.5% of value) | About $125 to $138, depending on the value used |
| Customs fees, broker, port, trucking | Varies, often several dozen dollars per ton |
| Landed cost before warehousing | Roughly $1,250 to $1,300 |
In this made-up case, the extra duty adds more than the ocean freight. That’s the point to take away: in today’s rice price trends in North America, trade policy can matter as much as the export price itself. Ask your broker exactly how duty is calculated on your entries.
How Canada and Mexico Change the Math
Run the same made-up example for a Canadian buyer and the Section 301 line disappears, so the landed cost is noticeably lower even with similar freight. For a Mexican buyer, the 20% milled rice duty on Asian origin pushes the landed cost up instead, which is why Mexico mostly buys from the US and South America.
That’s the clearest way to see why rice price trends in North America aren’t one trend but three. Same rice, same day, three very different numbers at the warehouse door.
How We Price Our Rice
Our prices follow the market and the wider rice price trends in North America, but they’re also set by the specific lot. When we quote, the price reflects:
- The grade and variety, and the crop year
- Purity, broken percentage and sorting
- Bag size, bag type and printing
- FOB, CFR or CIF, and your destination port
- Quantity and how regularly you buy
- Testing and certification you need
We quote in US dollars per metric ton, with a validity date. For background on how Thai rice is priced, see Thai jasmine rice price per ton, Thai white rice 5% broken price per ton and FOB vs CIF rice price.
Rice We Sell to North American Buyers
Here’s what we supply to the US, Canada and Mexico, and to buyers worldwide:
- Thai Hom Mali rice
- Thai jasmine rice / Pathumthani fragrant rice
- White rice 5% broken, 10% broken and 25% broken
- Thai parboiled rice 5% broken, 15% broken and 25% broken
- Thai glutinous rice
- Organic jasmine rice, brown rice and Thai red cargo rice
- Basmati rice, sushi rice and medium grain Calrose rice
See them all on our products page.
Standard Specifications
| Grade | Purity | Broken | Moisture | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thai Hom Mali rice | 92% min | 4.5% max | 14% max | Chalky 6% max |
| Thai jasmine rice | 95% min | 5% max | 14% max | Foreign matter 0.1% max |
| White rice 5% broken | Long grain | 5% max | 14% max | Sortexed |
| White rice 25% broken | Long grain | 25% max | 14% max | Foreign matter 0.5% max |
| Parboiled rice 5% broken | 100% sortexed | 5% max | 14% max | Admixture 0.1% max |
| Glutinous rice | 95 to 100% | 5% max | 14% max | Short to medium grain |
Packing from 2 lb to 50 lb and 1 kg to 50 kg, private label or our brands. Each lot ships with a certificate of analysis.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are rice prices going up or down?
Thai export prices rose through most of 2026 from a very low base in late 2025. In early October they were firm on flood worries. The main crop harvest later in the year could ease them, but nobody knows for sure.
Why is jasmine rice more expensive in the US this year?
Higher Thai export prices, a strong baht and the 12.5% US duty on Thai rice since July 2026 all add up.
Is it cheaper to buy Thai rice in Canada than in the US?
Often the landed cost is lower in Canada because it doesn’t carry the same US tariff, though freight and currency also matter.
Can you lock a price for several months?
We can talk about forward contracts for regular buyers, depending on the grade and the market at the time.
Get Current Prices
Rice price trends in North America will keep moving, so the only price that matters is today’s. Send us your grade, packing, quantity and port, and we’ll send a dated offer and samples.
De Thai Products 1989 Company Limited. Email info@dethairice.com, WhatsApp +66 81 034 6390, or use our contact page. You might also want our guides on how to import Thai rice into the USA and rice shipping from Thailand to the USA.
